I always get a kick out of those who engage in hyperbole against the Harper Conservatives. You know, labelling them as "neo-cons", "theo-cons", "capitalistic robots", "there is death in the soulless eyes of Stephen Harper", a "Bush clone", etc, etc. I don't know how much of this is real fear, and how much of this is hyperbole to define the Conservatives as an enemy. I often get the feeling that some of the hyperbole is, at the very least, to define the Conservative viewpoint as unCanadian. "It's not caring!" "It's not peacekeeping!" "It's not compassionate!" "It's too American!" "It's not cultured or intelligent." See...when I hear these things, I hear the strains of a left-leaning demogagy. I think this has been particularly acute in the West, especially since introduction of the National Energy Program. Successive Liberal governments and other parties (the NDP and the Bloc) have used Alberta as their whipping boy which simply sharpens the politics of division.
Against this background, the Prime Minister made the statement on May 3 that “One thing I've learned in this business is that surprises are generally not well received by the public." And I think he is right. One huge lesson learned from the Common Sense Revolution of Mike Harris in Ontario from 1995 is that change cannot happen at such a radical pace that people want to jump off the bus. So...there won't be any flat tax coming, there won't be citizens referrenda (I wonder if it is possible to get a poll going to see if we can change Rick Mercer's first name to "Textile" for those of you that recall his campaign to change Stockwell Day's first name to "Doris"), and there won't be any large attempt to re-open the constitution.
That isn't to say that change isn't coming...because it is. I just see it taking longer than what a lot of Tories would like to see. I also see change defined in three major ways:
1) Probably the most significant issue is whether the Tories are re-elected in 2015 with another majority mandate. If it is, then it shows that there is a significant comfort level achieved with the Tories by the Canadian electorate, not just by Conservative supporters, but also by a significant portion of non-Conservative supporters. This portion of the electorate may not like that their candidate/party had lost, but they have a comfort level with the Tories. Without this, there is a shaky foundation for points 2) and 3).
2) A return to POGG. What the heck is POGG? It stands for "Peace Order and Good Government." Found in Section 91 of the British North America Act - POGG deals with the division of powers between the Federal and Provincial governments. Without getting into a really boring discourse on constitutional law, the basic issue is that there is a lot of turf wars and meddling between the provinces and the federal governments. The debate over a National Securities Regulator is a prime example - is it the responsibilities of the provinces or the federal government to regulate national commerce? Ultimately, with POGG, I believe that the aim is that the Federal Government to set certain national standards and policies for the Nation, and let the provinces do with as they wish in that framework. This, by extension, would limit the size of the federal government to represent Canada within nation bulding and nation defining files (defence, national monetary policy, foreign affairs, etc).
3) The Tories moving the centre rightwards, and by extension the entire country away from the "nanny state." The characters that were able to do this successfully were Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. It can be argued that even to a large extent this drift to the right has been happening since Pierre Trudeau left office. It wasn't too long ago that the NDP was in favour of nationalizing the banks...now there is no mention on this at all. I don't think, though that we are in any danger of becoming as right winged as America (recently, I was in Arizona and some things I heard there makes Alberta look like a bunch of socialists).
All of these things will shape the debates over the future (what to do with the CBC, the future of our health care system, how do we balance environmental considerations with economic considerations, how do we get our kids more active, do we need a rethink in our aboriginal policy approach, etc, etc.)
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